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long shots over water

my buddy, a damn good shot and he knows his stuff. Was 81 degrees, at sea level BP and humidity were stable. Target at 835 yards he was hitting about 2 MOA high, with a 260 match. Recalculated everything and still hitting bout 2 moa high. The kicker- 700 yards of this shot was over water. We know that the humid air weighs less than dry air...
My question how do you calculate for this? What is the part of the equation that I am failing see?

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