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NY Professor correctly picked the last 5 elections
Smitty500mag
Member Posts: 13,623 ✭✭✭✭
http://eaglerising.com/37916/professor-who-correctly-predicted-last-5-elections-says-this-candidate-will-win-with-87-5-percent-certainty/
"One political science professor who's correctly predicted the winners of the last five presidential elections doesn't go by the polls. His name is Helmut Norpoth, and he works at Stony Brook University in New York. iNews reports:
Using a statistical model based on previous election results, he is predicting that Mr Trump will triumph next month. Professor Norpoth told i: "My forecast says that he's going to win 52.5 per cent of the two-party vote, that would give Hillary 47.5 per cent. I attach something like 87 per cent certainty that he's going to win."
Professor Norpoth admits that his prediction is not shared by many pollsters, with most showing Ms Clinton just ahead of Mr Trump - one by as many as 12 points. But he added: "My forecast is not poll-driven - I don't live by the polls so I don't die by the polls."
"One political science professor who's correctly predicted the winners of the last five presidential elections doesn't go by the polls. His name is Helmut Norpoth, and he works at Stony Brook University in New York. iNews reports:
Using a statistical model based on previous election results, he is predicting that Mr Trump will triumph next month. Professor Norpoth told i: "My forecast says that he's going to win 52.5 per cent of the two-party vote, that would give Hillary 47.5 per cent. I attach something like 87 per cent certainty that he's going to win."
Professor Norpoth admits that his prediction is not shared by many pollsters, with most showing Ms Clinton just ahead of Mr Trump - one by as many as 12 points. But he added: "My forecast is not poll-driven - I don't live by the polls so I don't die by the polls."
Comments
This one will be a bit similar, although I don't expect the two 'offbrands' (Johnson/Stein) to take over 18% of the popular vote like Perot did.
Won't be long now,...get ready to bend over.