In order to participate in the GunBroker Member forums, you must be logged in with your GunBroker.com account. Click the sign-in button at the top right of the forums page to get connected.
I take it back.
Doc
Member Posts: 13,898 ✭✭✭
Yesterday I said it looked like 22 ammo prices were slipping. Forget it. I was wrong.
Just a few short years ago a dollar per round was reserved for the exotic big bore cartridges. Now, surplus 308, 30-06 is going for that much and factory new 30-30s are selling for $1.25 to go with the $10+ for a box of lowly 22 shells. Of course, reloading supplies are equally out of sight.
Forget gun control, they will disarm us by making ammo unavailable due to high cost.
Just a few short years ago a dollar per round was reserved for the exotic big bore cartridges. Now, surplus 308, 30-06 is going for that much and factory new 30-30s are selling for $1.25 to go with the $10+ for a box of lowly 22 shells. Of course, reloading supplies are equally out of sight.
Forget gun control, they will disarm us by making ammo unavailable due to high cost.
....................................................................................................
Too old to live...too young to die...
Too old to live...too young to die...
Comments
There seem to be two schools of thought on the price of ammunition.
1. In about 6 months or a bit longer, once all the hoopula has died down and the speculators start losing money, the price of ammo will return to 'regular' prices.
2. Much like the manufactured gas shortages from the late 1960's - early 1970's ...... the manufactures have discovered people will pay XXX MORE dollars for their product so the prices will remain high.
[?][?][?][?]
the price of ammo will return to 'regular' prices.
AND just exactly how much is that ??????
my last purchase of a brick of .22 ammo it was $12.00 and change, is this what you mean by "regular" prices ?
ammo prices are being held at artificial highs by the consumers, or more accurately the hoarders/preppers/survivialists/etc crowd who seem to think that having 50k rounds of ammo isnt enough. ironically, many of these people are also subscribers to the bug out philosophy, to which i've asked many times "how are you going to carry all that ammo and the rest of your supplies"?
The guns and ammo world has FOREVER changed.
It seems natural thay the vast increase in firearms
purchases of the last couple years would include ammo.
Happened in 2008 too.
Eventually consumers will settle down from the fear based panic buying habits, manufacturers will catch up and things will settle down.
Until then conspiracy theories will flourish. Then shift focus to some other imagined evilness when the current Fashionable Fear gives way to the newest and latest Fear.
Meanwhile the marketplace will roll along, doing what it has always done.
It's kind of odd that some folks cannot see Capitalism at work here. Simple Supply & Demand, consumers went hog wild buying and have not yet recovered from the mood of fear and panic.
Happened in 2008 too.
Eventually consumers will settle down from the fear based panic buying habits, manufacturers will catch up and things will settle down.
Until then conspiracy theories will flourish. Then shift focus to some other imagined evilness when the current Fashionable Fear gives way to the newest and latest Fear.
Meanwhile the marketplace will roll along, doing what it has always done.
Yep, some people just can't wait to find something else of which to be afraid, and tell everyone else on the 'net so that they can panic also.
Too old to live...too young to die...
S&D doesn't count in a crisis. Artificially high prices due to a panic is not free market. It's black market. It's not capitalism, it's exploitation.
Black markets are those that exist in violation of price controls, rationing, or in illegal goods.
None of those factors exist here.
S&D most certainly does count in a crisis, it's just a steeper curve and, in the shortest of time periods, the supply line can be vertical.
The comparison is always to something like gas prices when a hurricane is coming, but that is actually the easiest way to ration the quite limited available supply.
With zero chance of getting re-supply in time, only those most in need of fuel will pay the price if it goes to "gouging" levels, all others will wait until they get to where the price is lower in the unaffected areas.
quote:Originally posted by Doc
S&D doesn't count in a crisis. Artificially high prices due to a panic is not free market. It's black market. It's not capitalism, it's exploitation.
Black markets are those that exist in violation of price controls, rationing, or in illegal goods.
None of those factors exist here.
S&D most certainly does count in a crisis, it's just a steeper curve and, in the shortest of time periods, the supply line can be vertical.
The comparison is always to something like gas prices when a hurricane is coming, but that is actually the easiest way to ration the quite limited available supply.
With zero chance of getting re-supply in time, only those most in need of fuel will pay the price if it goes to "gouging" levels, all others will wait until they get to where the price is lower in the unaffected areas.
This is the big problem I have with this argument. You assume that everyone has the same resources, which is simply not true. Those that need it most may likely be the ones least able to afford it, while those that don't need it at all may be the ones most likely to buy it simply because they can afford it.
When those that can afford something so easily at seemingly any cost continue to buy it up and sit on it, it hurts those with less resources disproportionately.
One thing I don't understand is why, in the time which has elapsed since this began, haven't Russian, Eastern Bloc and Chinese manufacturers flooded the market with their ammo?
It could take months to get it to market. You probably have on average one to 1.5 months in transit before it hits the US coast. I am sure that our great government is sitting on the importations of these items as long as they can get away with. So add another 2 months to the equation. Then add another couple of weeks for it to hit distributors and another couple to hit the internet sales websites. My best guess is that the large importers of ammo like AIM Surplus, will see some large shipments arrive soon....Hopefully.
quote:Originally posted by dlrjj
quote:Originally posted by Doc
S&D doesn't count in a crisis. Artificially high prices due to a panic is not free market. It's black market. It's not capitalism, it's exploitation.
Black markets are those that exist in violation of price controls, rationing, or in illegal goods.
None of those factors exist here.
S&D most certainly does count in a crisis, it's just a steeper curve and, in the shortest of time periods, the supply line can be vertical.
The comparison is always to something like gas prices when a hurricane is coming, but that is actually the easiest way to ration the quite limited available supply.
With zero chance of getting re-supply in time, only those most in need of fuel will pay the price if it goes to "gouging" levels, all others will wait until they get to where the price is lower in the unaffected areas.
This is the big problem I have with this argument. You assume that everyone has the same resources, which is simply not true. Those that need it most may likely be the ones least able to afford it, while those that don't need it at all may be the ones most likely to buy it simply because they can afford it.
When those that can afford something so easily at seemingly any cost continue to buy it up and sit on it, it hurts those with less resources disproportionately.
Nowhere did I assume any concept of equal resources, that is your assumption.
Of course they do not have equal resources, and there is absolutely no way to ensure that they do, but that does not alleviate the problem.
The reason for the scarcity is that there clearly is not enough to go around to all who want the product or service in the quantities they wish to purchase.
Someway, somehow, the available resources must be rationed to those who wish to procure them.
First come, first served works, but it completely favors those who reside closest and can move the fastest and has little or nothing to do with need or resources.
Brute strength works, but it's rough on little old ladies in their sedans against the local football players.
Appearance works and favors cute girls, but it doesn't solve the problem of need or ability to pay.
Who is to decide who gets how many or how much, and who will enforce the distribution?
Understanding that ANY form of decision making is, by definition, some form of discrimination, any open market is still normally the most efficient allocation method possible.
You stated that those who can afford something are the most likely to buy the high priced product simply because they can, and there will always be an element of that factor, but not much.
What is more likely is that those who have an adequate amount of something will simply wait until they can get what they wish at a better price.
This has been shown in many observations of those who evacuate in areas like Florida in the face of a storm when those with a full tank will bypass high priced "gouging" local fuel until they get away from the affected area and can obtain normal priced fuel.
Efforts to hold prices down simply mean that far too many simply "top off" tanks with fuel that is not needed to get out of the danger zone, leaving less for those who actually need it, whether of not they can pay.
We see it here with the many who could afford to buy ammunition at these prices, but have no desire so to do since they have enough to take care of their current needs.
Adam Smith had it right, the "invisible hand" and the price mechanism works well to optimize distribution, but no system is completely equitable.
What we have now regarding ammo is not rationing or price gouging. I've been calling it speculation. Others call it profiteering.
Legal or not, it's still taking advantage of someone. Many can rationalize it however they want. It's a blame the victim mentality.
I am tired of hearing how everyone who doesn't have piles of ammo should have planned ahead. It's their fault for not being being prepared. My argument is that many people including myself cannot afford to wrap up thousands of dollars in ammo. So you can tell me all you want about how we should have been more prepared, but if we couldn't afford to stockpile then we couldn't stockpile.
Now I'm not whining, because I am not buying at these prices. I would like to have more ammo to shoot, but I have enough.
We have more new shooters in our ranks than ever before. That's good for all of us. Unfortunately some of us have an attitude that these people deserve to be screwed over for some reason because they are new to this or couldn't afford to stockpile or whatever reason makes themselves feel better about hanging out at walmart to buy ammo they don't need just to make money they don't need.
In a true emergency, that is not how things are rationed. Look through history and you will find during times of war or national distress, actual rationing went into effect. Not price based control. Same with gas rationing in the 70's. It's illegal for businesses to price gouge during emergencies.
What we have now regarding ammo is not rationing or price gouging. I've been calling it speculation. Others call it profiteering.
Legal or not, it's still taking advantage of someone. Many can rationalize it however they want. It's a blame the victim mentality.
I am tired of hearing how everyone who doesn't have piles of ammo should have planned ahead. It's their fault for not being being prepared. My argument is that many people including myself cannot afford to wrap up thousands of dollars in ammo. So you can tell me all you want about how we should have been more prepared, but if we couldn't afford to stockpile then we couldn't stockpile.
Now I'm not whining, because I am not buying at these prices. I would like to have more ammo to shoot, but I have enough.
We have more new shooters in our ranks than ever before. That's good for all of us. Unfortunately some of us have an attitude that these people deserve to be screwed over for some reason because they are new to this or couldn't afford to stockpile or whatever reason makes themselves feel better about hanging out at walmart to buy ammo they don't need just to make money they don't need.
Huge difference between short term, like a storm, and long term, like a protracted war.
The time element is not the only distinction, since there is also a serious variation in the width and breadth of the involvement of the population itself.
When you deal with the long term, you have the ability to assign values and priorities to resources, and also to evaluate which are needing to be rationed for themselves, and which because of their relation to something else.
For instance, during WWII we couldn`t produce near the tires we needed once some of the sources of rubber fell to the Japanese, so tires were rationed based on need.
The problem, of course, was how to stop people from driving and wearing out their tires even though they were not supposed to be, since those in critical industries would have to be provided new rubber even if they abused the policy.
What to do?
The answer was simple, fuel was rationed to as little as 3 gallons per week for people with little need to drive, or who didn't work in critical industries, but it was not strictly because of a shortage of fuel.
We actually weren`t having much trouble producing adequate quantities of fuel, but if you're wanting to stop people from driving and wearing out their tires, the easiest way to do that is simply to shut off their fuel supply.
Problem solved, but it was a secondary rationing problem and solution.
Ammunition to the general public, in large quantities, for a short period of time, is not a national crisis demanding nationwide rationing.
The market will adequately police itself, and it will definitely level out over time.
IF you keep the government out of it.
S&D doesn't count in a crisis. Artificially high prices due to a panic is not free market. It's black market. It's not capitalism, it's exploitation.
That would be completely true, if we were talking about a necessity. Ammunition isn't a necessity for the overwhelmingly vast majority of us....
How many of you can remember when gas was less than a buck a gallon.