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Python speculation question
toad67
Member Posts: 13,008 ✭✭✭✭
Does any one have any gut feelings as to what the Colt snake guns (pythons mostly) might do in the future? Obviously in the past they have went thru the roof and continue to stay there, with some models bring 2x-3x of book value, or more. LGS has a NIB 6" blued Python with everything and thought about making a little investment. Obviously this is all speculation, but thought I'd see what you have to say. Thanks.
Comments
If you have money you want to invest in firearms. I would buy 19th Century U.S. military handguns.
Bottom line here, the gun itself is iconic (its got one of the most recognized appearances and names in the world of revolvers), these are desirable from a collector's standpoint, and labor costs being what they are, they're probably never going to be made again, or at least certainly not on a production level.
So from an investment/speculation standpoint, I don't think you can go too wrong buying one, so long as you pay fair market value when you get it and are willing to hold onto it for a few years.
Edit, responding to above:
quote:Originally posted by rufe-snow
Buying at the top of the market, is a recipe for getting screwed, blued and tattooed.
Absolutely, but how do you know when the market has topped? That's really the issue/problem. I'd argue that its almost never possible to know when things have hit their peak, except retrospectively, and that's even if you've been carefully following the prices of these guns for many years.
Sometimes things pause and cool off a little, only to resume going up again because of economic or other reasons. More important, as a matter of practice, prices (of any investment) always make new all time highs before they continue to make higher new all time highs! In the case of Pythons, that's pretty much been every single year. . .if you automatically sell at the "top" you pretty much can't own a Python. . you'd have sold yours!
In this case, perhaps it has happened, but I don't really know that Python prices have topped out. Is there a specific reason you believe this to be true?
quote:
If you have money you want to invest in firearms. I would buy 19th Century U.S. military handguns.
So while I agree with you in principle, that within the world of firearms, there are probably ones with more medium-term appreciation potential than Colt Pythons, that's sort of a different question.
I think WWII era military guns are also a pretty good investment opportunity, btw. Also, historically speaking, buying full auto guns has always been a pretty good investment. IE, I don't think there has been any period of time where you would have lost money buying one (even at the "top") then selling 3-4 years later. But speaking in general, its not always easy to predict what will and won't appreciate in value.
For example, the highest appreciating commonly available guns of recent memory I'm aware of are SKS rifles. Largely considered yesterday's "junk", these have effectively tripled in value in 15 years. In terms of percentage appreciation, that outstrips almost everything else (including pythons!). I recently pulled up an internet post from the early 2000s where the author claimed definitively that SKS rifles would never exceed $100 value during his lifetime! [:p]
For most people, buying guns in this way isn't a pure investment, but half hobby/entertainment, half-investment. Deserved or not, Colt Python carries a mystique that many older military issue weapons don't. So I don't think its "wrong" to buy a Python, if that's where your interest is.
Edit #2: Best firearms related "investment" of recent memory has probably been .22LR ammo! If you had stockpiled after the first Obama ammo "panic" you could have tripled your money after the second (and still partly ongoing) one. Prices on this probably are finally starting to settle down now. Still, certain other ammo has also been a relatively good investment too. EG, Romanian Milsurp 8mm Mauser cost $100/can SHIPPED just 6-7 years ago. Now it costs $180/can. I don't have prices off the top of my head on the Russian Steel case 7,62x39, but I seem to remember it at roughly $120/1000 right before Obama took office, and now its around $200/1000.
I really don't understand guns as an investment. If I am investing money with the idea of having that money work for me, I'm inclined to purchase a portion of some company whose business it is to make a profit. Buying guns with the idea of selling them? I wonder if buying people with the idea of selling them can be far behind.
Well, I agree that in terms of a pure financial investment, something like a stock is probably more liquid. But I think the comparison between collecting rare guns and chattel slavery is way off base here. Where did that come from?
Buying old collectible guns is really no different than collecting art, rare stamps, other similar antiques, or even things like rare wines. The basic idea is that these things have appeal to collectors and because of scarcity may appreciate over time.
I think for the vast majority of people who collect these sorts of things, its mostly about the fun and hobby of doing it. Precious few people actually make a living trading collectibles this way, let alone enough money to actually retire on! But despite that, you still like to tell yourself (and maybe your wife [;)]) that you'll make money in the end selling what you've collected, partly to justify the expense and effort involved. Nobody wants to sink a lot of cash and time into collectibles then take a loss on them.
The way I see the above question isn't "Is buying a Colt Python a better investment than 20 shares of IBM", but rather "I think Colt Pythons are cool and want to buy one. Am I going to lose my shirt paying what seems like a small fortune for one right now, or will I actually end up ahead of the game?".
All I can say on this is that every time for the past 15 years I've looked at a Python thinking "this is too expensive", its only gone up in price.
Bottom line here, the gun itself is iconic (its got one of the most recognized appearances and names in the world of revolvers), these are desirable from a collector's standpoint, and labor costs being what they are, they're probably never going to be made again, or at least certainly not on a production level.
So from an investment/speculation standpoint, I don't think you can go too wrong buying one, so long as you pay fair market value when you get it and are willing to hold onto it for a few years.
Edit, responding to above:
quote:Originally posted by rufe-snow
Buying at the top of the market, is a recipe for getting screwed, blued and tattooed.
Absolutely, but how do you know when the market has topped? That's really the issue/problem. I'd argue that its almost never possible to know when things have hit their peak, except retrospectively, and that's even if you've been carefully following the prices of these guns for many years.
Sometimes things pause and cool off a little, only to resume going up again because of economic or other reasons. More important, as a matter of practice, prices (of any investment) always make new all time highs before they continue to make higher new all time highs! In the case of Pythons, that's pretty much been every single year. . .if you automatically sell at the "top" you pretty much can't own a Python. . you'd have sold yours!
In this case, perhaps it has happened, but I don't really know that Python prices have topped out. Is there a specific reason you believe this to be true?
quote:
If you have money you want to invest in firearms. I would buy 19th Century U.S. military handguns.
So while I agree with you in principle, that within the world of firearms, there are probably ones with more medium-term appreciation potential than Colt Pythons, that's sort of a different question.
I think WWII era military guns are also a pretty good investment opportunity, btw. Also, historically speaking, buying full auto guns has always been a pretty good investment. IE, I don't think there has been any period of time where you would have lost money buying one (even at the "top") then selling 3-4 years later. But speaking in general, its not always easy to predict what will and won't appreciate in value.
For example, the highest appreciating commonly available guns of recent memory I'm aware of are SKS rifles. Largely considered yesterday's "junk", these have effectively tripled in value in 15 years. In terms of percentage appreciation, that outstrips almost everything else (including pythons!). I recently pulled up an internet post from the early 2000s where the author claimed definitively that SKS rifles would never exceed $100 value during his lifetime! [:p]
For most people, buying guns in this way isn't a pure investment, but half hobby/entertainment, half-investment. Deserved or not, Colt Python carries a mystique that many older military issue weapons don't. So I don't think its "wrong" to buy a Python, if that's where your interest is.
Edit #2: Best firearms related "investment" of recent memory has probably been .22LR ammo! If you had stockpiled after the first Obama ammo "panic" you could have tripled your money after the second (and still partly ongoing) one. Prices on this probably are finally starting to settle down now. Still, certain other ammo has also been a relatively good investment too. EG, Romanian Milsurp 8mm Mauser cost $100/can SHIPPED just 6-7 years ago. Now it costs $180/can. I don't have prices off the top of my head on the Russian Steel case 7,62x39, but I seem to remember it at roughly $120/1000 right before Obama took office, and now its around $200/1000.
I'm not an economist. But this business with the values on Pythons. Sure gives the appearance, of being the classic "bubble" to me. Sooner or later the market will get saturated. The folks will payed really big bucks, are going to be stuck with them.
Best to compare it to the real estate market in 2007. People who payed astronomical prices for their homes are at best underwater, or in worst case scenario, out on the street.
Guns, I just buy what I think is neat. This is my hobby, I don't worry about whether the prices go up or down.
Neal
Best to compare it to the real estate market in 2007. People who payed astronomical prices for their homes are at best underwater, or in worst case scenario, out on the street.
This really isn't a good comparison. The housing "bubble" was not caused by those "evil" investment bankers but by an artificially set demand base caused by federal policies and regulations. The liberals saw that the prices of housing was increasing (following the previous downturn in the '80s) and saw this as a good way to get "the poor" involved in this way of building their financial situation. The feds changed loan requirements and implemented strategies so the banks could (actually HAD to) make mortgage loans to people that were otherwise unable to qualify. The idea was based on the premise that property values would continue their appreciation and since the "poor" people had their name on the deed, even though they were not paying even the monthly interest on the loan, that in a year or two the property value would be such that it could be sold, paying off the mortgage and leaving a few thousand dollars for the former owners, with which they could repeat the process.
The problem with the do-gooders plan was that the change in the balance between demand and supply was not anticipated. The policies achieved their desired results of adding millions of buyers to the demand for homes, but the supply of homes remained the same. As a result the price of homes escalated; which in turn resulted in fewer homes being offered for sale, because the owners saw the rise in value and saw that by keeping their home off of the market the value of the home increased. This aggravated the balance because as the number of buyers increased, the number of homes for sale decreased. This resulted in increased values of homes and skyrocketing prices.
The result was that the potential buyers were eliminated from even the "sub-prime" eligibility rules and were removed from the pool of potential purchasers. As the number of eliminated buyers increased and the demand pool decreased, the balance of demand/supply shifted back. This caused those holding property from the market to see the topping out of its value, and so they put it on the market. The more homes that were put on the market, the faster the prices dropped, causing more homes to be put on the market. The result was the reverse of the skyrocketing prices.
And who got hurt the most in this process? The ones that the do-gooders were trying to help. Those that had purchased a home at the higher end of the market because they could see their opportunity to buy a home fading as home prices rose, but shortly the prices plummeted and they were left holding a loan for much more than the current value of their home.
So apply this scenario to Pythons. There are no civic action groups proclaiming that it is the right of everyone, regardless of income or social position to own a Python. Nor is the government saying that a finance company is required to loan money to a person to purchase a Python, even though the only means he would have of paying the loan would be for the Python to appreciate, then sell it to pay the loan. Nor do we have the race hustlers claiming that it's a matter of equality for everyone, especially minorities to own a Python, even though there are only enough Pythons for only one out of every hundred citizens to own one (to say nothing of the illegals).
The status of Pythons is "real estate very lite". Pythons were discontinued. The purchaser base has expanded and since the Python quantity remained the same, the price increased. As with the real estate, there are some Python owners that see the price increase and so delay putting their Python for sale, expecting the price to continue to increase. This action causes the price of Pythons to increase because the supply is decreased. When the demand drops the resulting increase in supply will cause the price to drop even more.
The solution is not to try to "time" the market on Pythons, but to determine what you consider a fair exchange price is for a Python: that is, the amount of money which you would be indifferent to as to whether you had the Python or the money. Once you have determined that price, then when a Python is offered for sale at less than that price, you'd purchase the Python; if it is offered for more than that price, you'd keep you money. Having done that, it doesn't matter what happens to future pricing, unless you're a "speculator" in which case you get what you deserve.
If it is a collectable gun the value will rise until it is no longer fashionable to collect or the price tops out and it is beyond our reach to obtain.
Guns are meant to shoot; buy the Python and shoot the thing until bored with it then sell it for a profit...... or not. [:D]