Python X2 question

toad67

Great answers, thanks. The only thing that might make mine different is that it is NIB unfired.

http://forums.GunBroker.com/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=634151

Laredo Lefty

A couple of the 7 Colt snake guns are still eluding me. The Boa and the Viper.

I think the Python and its cousins have leveled off in price, at least for the time being. A few years ago they jumped by leaps and bounds as we know.

NIB condition always adds value to any gun. Keep it that way if you can.

beantownshootah

quote:I'm not an economist. But this business with the values on Pythons. Sure gives the appearance, of being the classic "bubble" to me. Sooner or later the market will get saturated. The folks will payed really big bucks, are going to be stuck with them.
Again, I disagree. Hallmark of a "bubble" is sudden and otherwise unexplained rapid rise in price. Do you have any reason to believe that this has happened with Python revolvers?

What I see is that these guns have been appreciating by a certain amount every year. Steady constant appreciation is pretty much the exact opposite of a "bubble".

Reason isn't too hard to explain, either. Python is a famous and desirable production gun that's been out of production for many years. Unlike real estate (more houses can always be build) production of old Pythons is fixed. . .no more of these will ever be made. In the meantime, the size of the American shooting population has grown dramatically (and continues to do so).

So we have a situation with fixed supply and increasing demand. The natural response is increase in price.

The things that could end the appreciation are either an increase in supply or a decrease in demand. Again, its fairly unlikely that Colt will ever re-introduce these, let alone with the previous hand craftsmanship that made the guns special. Even if Colt did, the "originals" will always be worth more than any new "reproduction" (See value of current new production SIG P210 target autos vs originals).

At some point demand probably *will* level off, but I don't think that's ALREADY happened. Participation in shooting sports AND collecting of guns is only increasing, so I don't think we've hit "top" yet.

quote:Best to compare it to the real estate market in 2007. People who payed astronomical prices for their homes are at best underwater, or in worst case scenario, out on the street.
Meh. This is apples and oranges. Real estate bubble happened because of an artificial increase in demand/liquidity caused by gov't market intervention. How does that compare here?

Again, so far anyone who has paid fair market value for a Python and held it for a few years is up (at least on paper). Until/unless you have some evidence indicating that prices on Pythons are dropping, you CANNOT assume that they've peaked in value, and you probably should assume the opposite.

quote:
Toad67
Great answers, thanks. The only thing that might make mine different is that it is NIB unfired.

http://forums.GunBroker.com/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=634151
Heh. I'd never buy an NIB unfired Python.

As mentioned, those are most desirable for collectors and therefore make the best investments. So if you're after an investment, that's probably what you "should" buy (though entry price matters. . .a low price paid for a fired gun is probably a better investment than a hig market price on an NIB).

The problem with an NIB gun is that you can't fire one! [:p][:p]

Well, you could fire one, but that first shot will probably cost you a few hundred bucks! Better off just paying someone $50 to borrow THEIR used Python and fire that one!

Ray B

I respect your comments bts, but the "hallmark" of a bubble is not the unexplained rapid rise in an objects value. The rapid rise in values of anything are attributed to two causes: Cost Push and Demand Pull; which is shorthand for prices going up because the costs of producing are going up (UPS rates go up because the price of fuel has gone up, causing UPS's expenses to increase) AND there are more people wanting a product, or the number of items for sale decreases, either case results in a higher price. The BUBBLE comes in when expected shifts in the price result in suppliers withholding product and buyers increasing purchases (an owner keeps his gun off of the market today because he expects the price to be higher tomorrow, or a buyer buys one today only because he expects the price to be higher tomorrow. The reason it is a bubble is that both the decrease in supply and the increase in demand are the direct result of an expected increase in price; and when that expectation no longer exists, the prices revert to "normal", which, as noted, causes the reverse- sellers expect the prices to be lower tomorrow than today, so want to sell it today; buyers expect the price to be lower tomorrow, so prefer to wait to purchase. The result is a collapse in the price; generally followed by a readjustment to supply and demand based on actual buyers and sellers rather than speculators.

So where are Pythons with respect to supply and demand? My opinion is that there is some speculation. based primarily on the knowledge that Pythons have been discontinued and the total number is fixed; thus speculation is based on the expectation that the number of people that desire to purchase Pythons exceeds the quantity. The thing that would change is if a reason (technological or governmental) causes an increase or decrease in the number of people desiring to own Pythons.

beantownshootah

quote:Originally posted by Ray B
I respect your comments bts, but the "hallmark" of a bubble is not the unexplained rapid rise in an objects value.
I'm not going to quibble over this. Here's the formal definition:
quote:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble

An economic bubble (sometimes referred to as a speculative bubble, a market bubble, a price bubble, a financial bubble, a speculative mania or a balloon) is "trade in high volumes at prices that are considerably at variance with intrinsic values". It could also be described as a situation in which asset prices appear to be based on implausible or inconsistent views about the future.[4]
This bit echoes what I said before:
quote:Because it is often difficult to observe intrinsic values in real-life markets, bubbles are often conclusively identified only in retrospect, when a sudden drop in prices appears. Such a drop is known as a crash or a bubble burst.

I'll leave it to readers here to decide if the increase in price of Colt Python revolvers over the last "N" years represents a high volume deviation from their "true value" or not.

But I don't think it does, for reasons already mentioned: Supply is fixed, demand has been increasing. Since I don't see market supply (ie "float") increasing any time soon, nor demand decreasing, I don't think prices are due for a tumble.