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UPDATE: College Football & why Bama is likely out
kimi
Member Posts: 44,719 ✭✭✭
LSU came up with a huge win over Alabama yesterday. What a great game it was. Going in they were 5 and a half or six point underdogs and won it by five points in Tuscaloosa. It might have been the best LSU game ever played - it was certainly one of the most entertaining football games I have ever watched...but there have been a lot of games of the century, so to speak, plus one billed as the greatest football game ever played, the 2006 Rose Bowl. This game featured USC riding a 34 game winning streak, (since stripped from the record books I think for NCAA violations), and two Heisman Trophy winners pitted against Texas out of the BIG-12 riding a 19 game winning streak QB'd by the true Heisman Trophy winner that wasn't - the great Vince Young...that also included the 2005 Rose Bowl championship game over Michigan.
Back to the present, we have the LSU Tigers in the limelight of college football's top spot with Ohio State looming big on the horizon. What a match-up that would make for a national championship game, but there is lots of football yet to be played for now. And, what about Clemson? Have we forgotten that they beat...or rather embarrassed Bama, by a score of 44-16 to become our reigning national champions? Have we forgotten that they own a 25 game winning streak...read that again, a 25 game winning streak!
And what of Bama's loss to the Tigers? Will they have a chance to make the Final Four in college football? Not likely as I see it...but still a possibility. They should sew up one of the other two Big Six bowl games, though.
Right now we have Clemson and LSU looking fairly good to win out, with the Buckeyes being favored to do the same despite the wounded Nittany Lions plus Michigan waiting in the wings to spoil such an event. And what about Oklahoma and Oregon...will they even win their conference? What a scramble and fun time we have to look forward to...especially with the bias that will likely vault a great 17th ranked Minnesota team into their midst at this time...over 10th ranked and undefeated Baylor at that!
Added: Good article here,
There have been five College Football Playoffs. Alabama has been in all of them, reaching four title games and winning two national championships.
Only twice was Alabama unbeaten when the playoff committee selected it to the four-team field. The three other times, it had a loss. In 2017, the Tide didn?t even win the SEC West and still got picked at 11-1.
That?s the margin for error Alabama enjoys/earned/deserves. Only it may not exist this year.
The 8-0, third-ranked Crimson Tide host the 8-0, second-ranked LSU Tigers on Saturday in Tuscaloosa.
It?s not just a big game. This time it?s likely a must-win for Alabama?s playoff hopes.
Schedule and circumstances have left Alabama with no safety net. Lose to LSU at home and barring a lot of collapses around the country, Nick Saban?s team could be out. You could hear the warning bells ringing Tuesday when the first playoff rankings were released.
Committee chairperson Rob Mullens noted that Alabama was highly regarded not because of who the Tide beat ? a Texas A&M team that was ranked 24th at kickoff is ostensibly its best win ? but in spite of it, namely that it?s looked good against a blah schedule.
?Alabama is No. 3 because committee members are impressed with its overall performance and quality of play on both sides of the ball,? said Mullens, who is Oregon's athletic director.
For ?Bama this is about the eye test, not a strong r?sum? full of quality wins. And that means a loss, which is almost by definition ugly to the eye, becomes even more problematic.
A loss against LSU would likely keep Nick Saban and Alabama out of the College Football Playoff for the first time. (AP)
Alabama can?t point to a strong schedule to combat any losses. There is very little there, at least so far.
The SEC West hasn?t produced the gauntlet of tough teams as it has in years past. That A&M squad is now unranked. Alabama?s big non-conference game was against Duke, which is 4-4. The league crossover game was, as always, against Tennessee, which is 4-5.
It?s a far cry from past seasons.
In 2014, Alabama defeated six teams ranked at kickoff and won the SEC, to make the CFP despite losing to then-No. 11 Ole Miss. In 2015, it beat six teams ranked at kickoff, including No. 2 LSU, and won the SEC to offset another loss to Mississippi.
In 2017, it defeated three teams ranked at the time of kickoff to minimize a loss at then-No. 6 Auburn despite Alabama not even winning its division.
In both 2016 and 2018, the Tide were unbeaten and entered the final weekend in such a commanding position they could likely have lost in the SEC championship game and still been picked in the top four. In 2016, it defeated seven teams ranked at the time of kickoff before smoking No. 15 Florida in that SEC title game.
It makes LSU on Saturday an even bigger deal. Beat the Tigers and what Alabama has left remaining on the schedule is a road game at current No. 12 Auburn, then a likely SEC title game against current No. 7 Georgia.
Lose to the Tigers, though, and LSU has the inside track to Atlanta ? it would have to lose two times while facing Ole Miss, Arkansas and A&M. That?s difficult to fathom.
In that case, Alabama would be left with just the Auburn game to make its case. Auburn is a good opponent, but it already has two losses (to LSU and Florida) and still must play Georgia. The quality of that win could be debatable by selection Sunday.
The committee acknowledged as much, even noting No. 4 Penn State probably had a better r?sum? so far and the only reason the Tide is ranked above the Nittany Lions is how they looked while winning.
?I think at the end of the day, when the committee watched Alabama, what they saw is a team that's being dominant against that schedule, and that was the difference between Alabama and Penn State,? Mullens said. ?Obviously we watch all the games and see the data, and what you see when you watch Alabama is obviously outstanding playmakers.
There have been five College Football Playoffs. Alabama has been in all of them, reaching four title games and winning two national championships.
Only twice was Alabama unbeaten when the playoff committee selected it to the four-team field. The three other times, it had a loss. In 2017, the Tide didn?t even win the SEC West and still got picked at 11-1.
That?s the margin for error Alabama enjoys/earned/deserves.
Only it may not exist this year.
?They?ve been dominant against their schedule, and while it may not be as strong as some others, when you watch the games, they certainly have been dominant.?
And if they aren?t dominant?
Conversely, LSU might be fine with a loss in Tuscaloosa, especially a close one. First off, it?s on the road. Second, the Tigers already own wins over Auburn, Florida and at a Texas team that could work its way back into the rankings. If there is going to be an 11-1 non-division champion SEC entry this year ? it?s LSU, not Bama.
Nick Saban won?t acknowledge as much, because he smartly doesn?t acknowledge much of anything.
?Look, I didn?t even look at the college football rankings,? Saban said. ?I don?t even know what we were ranked. It?s not going to matter if we don?t win the games that we play.?
Saban is right about that, this year more than ever.
https://sports.yahoo.com/why-alabama-must-beat-lsu-to-make-college-football-playoff-223125462.html
Back to the present, we have the LSU Tigers in the limelight of college football's top spot with Ohio State looming big on the horizon. What a match-up that would make for a national championship game, but there is lots of football yet to be played for now. And, what about Clemson? Have we forgotten that they beat...or rather embarrassed Bama, by a score of 44-16 to become our reigning national champions? Have we forgotten that they own a 25 game winning streak...read that again, a 25 game winning streak!
And what of Bama's loss to the Tigers? Will they have a chance to make the Final Four in college football? Not likely as I see it...but still a possibility. They should sew up one of the other two Big Six bowl games, though.
Right now we have Clemson and LSU looking fairly good to win out, with the Buckeyes being favored to do the same despite the wounded Nittany Lions plus Michigan waiting in the wings to spoil such an event. And what about Oklahoma and Oregon...will they even win their conference? What a scramble and fun time we have to look forward to...especially with the bias that will likely vault a great 17th ranked Minnesota team into their midst at this time...over 10th ranked and undefeated Baylor at that!
Added: Good article here,
There have been five College Football Playoffs. Alabama has been in all of them, reaching four title games and winning two national championships.
Only twice was Alabama unbeaten when the playoff committee selected it to the four-team field. The three other times, it had a loss. In 2017, the Tide didn?t even win the SEC West and still got picked at 11-1.
That?s the margin for error Alabama enjoys/earned/deserves. Only it may not exist this year.
The 8-0, third-ranked Crimson Tide host the 8-0, second-ranked LSU Tigers on Saturday in Tuscaloosa.
It?s not just a big game. This time it?s likely a must-win for Alabama?s playoff hopes.
Schedule and circumstances have left Alabama with no safety net. Lose to LSU at home and barring a lot of collapses around the country, Nick Saban?s team could be out. You could hear the warning bells ringing Tuesday when the first playoff rankings were released.
Committee chairperson Rob Mullens noted that Alabama was highly regarded not because of who the Tide beat ? a Texas A&M team that was ranked 24th at kickoff is ostensibly its best win ? but in spite of it, namely that it?s looked good against a blah schedule.
?Alabama is No. 3 because committee members are impressed with its overall performance and quality of play on both sides of the ball,? said Mullens, who is Oregon's athletic director.
For ?Bama this is about the eye test, not a strong r?sum? full of quality wins. And that means a loss, which is almost by definition ugly to the eye, becomes even more problematic.
A loss against LSU would likely keep Nick Saban and Alabama out of the College Football Playoff for the first time. (AP)
Alabama can?t point to a strong schedule to combat any losses. There is very little there, at least so far.
The SEC West hasn?t produced the gauntlet of tough teams as it has in years past. That A&M squad is now unranked. Alabama?s big non-conference game was against Duke, which is 4-4. The league crossover game was, as always, against Tennessee, which is 4-5.
It?s a far cry from past seasons.
In 2014, Alabama defeated six teams ranked at kickoff and won the SEC, to make the CFP despite losing to then-No. 11 Ole Miss. In 2015, it beat six teams ranked at kickoff, including No. 2 LSU, and won the SEC to offset another loss to Mississippi.
In 2017, it defeated three teams ranked at the time of kickoff to minimize a loss at then-No. 6 Auburn despite Alabama not even winning its division.
In both 2016 and 2018, the Tide were unbeaten and entered the final weekend in such a commanding position they could likely have lost in the SEC championship game and still been picked in the top four. In 2016, it defeated seven teams ranked at the time of kickoff before smoking No. 15 Florida in that SEC title game.
It makes LSU on Saturday an even bigger deal. Beat the Tigers and what Alabama has left remaining on the schedule is a road game at current No. 12 Auburn, then a likely SEC title game against current No. 7 Georgia.
Lose to the Tigers, though, and LSU has the inside track to Atlanta ? it would have to lose two times while facing Ole Miss, Arkansas and A&M. That?s difficult to fathom.
In that case, Alabama would be left with just the Auburn game to make its case. Auburn is a good opponent, but it already has two losses (to LSU and Florida) and still must play Georgia. The quality of that win could be debatable by selection Sunday.
The committee acknowledged as much, even noting No. 4 Penn State probably had a better r?sum? so far and the only reason the Tide is ranked above the Nittany Lions is how they looked while winning.
?I think at the end of the day, when the committee watched Alabama, what they saw is a team that's being dominant against that schedule, and that was the difference between Alabama and Penn State,? Mullens said. ?Obviously we watch all the games and see the data, and what you see when you watch Alabama is obviously outstanding playmakers.
There have been five College Football Playoffs. Alabama has been in all of them, reaching four title games and winning two national championships.
Only twice was Alabama unbeaten when the playoff committee selected it to the four-team field. The three other times, it had a loss. In 2017, the Tide didn?t even win the SEC West and still got picked at 11-1.
That?s the margin for error Alabama enjoys/earned/deserves.
Only it may not exist this year.
?They?ve been dominant against their schedule, and while it may not be as strong as some others, when you watch the games, they certainly have been dominant.?
And if they aren?t dominant?
Conversely, LSU might be fine with a loss in Tuscaloosa, especially a close one. First off, it?s on the road. Second, the Tigers already own wins over Auburn, Florida and at a Texas team that could work its way back into the rankings. If there is going to be an 11-1 non-division champion SEC entry this year ? it?s LSU, not Bama.
Nick Saban won?t acknowledge as much, because he smartly doesn?t acknowledge much of anything.
?Look, I didn?t even look at the college football rankings,? Saban said. ?I don?t even know what we were ranked. It?s not going to matter if we don?t win the games that we play.?
Saban is right about that, this year more than ever.
https://sports.yahoo.com/why-alabama-must-beat-lsu-to-make-college-football-playoff-223125462.html
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Comments
LSU v Bama was indeed one good football game. (too bad Moo U was on at the same time and I was channel flipping - should have stayed watching LSU)
Penn State lost to MN
And Alabama losing to LSU
Shouldn?t at some point these smaller programs get a shot a national championship?
If the playoffs were selected tomorrow-and there are 5 undefeated top 25 teams, why shouldn?t they square up and go at it?
Ohio St vs Baylor
LSU vs Clemson
And I will go you one better- give the underdog home field advantage. If you are the better program you should be able to win on the road (just like LSU did).
The play of the game: In the first quarter Tua dropped the ball on a QB keeper. LSU recovered on their own 6 yard line. And drove 95 yards for the score.
Second biggest play: Alabama punter, also first quarter, let the ball go right through his hands, about a 50 yard field position swing.
Alabama could not recover from those two screw ups.
The pros are drooling, watching that badass QB for LSU. Six foot five and a great arm.
My brother and I are Georgia fans. And he said to me yesterday, "You watched the Alabama game, and you watched Georgia. Do you think Georgia could beat Alabama?"
And I said "No."
This is part of the problem and how it skews statistics and perceptions. The SEC has multiple possibilities to get two teams into the field for the second time in three years. That certainly ups the odds SEC will end up winning. If LSU wins out, they should be in the final 4.
Alabama is the only team to appear in all five CFPs. The Crimson Tide have made - and won - national championships twice recently without so much as winning their division (2011, 2017).
I see them as the two best teams right now, too!
Clemson has played the Wofford Terriers, Charlotte 49ers, Georgia Tech, Louisville, NC State, and the mighty Gamecocks are next a team that even Tennessee beat.
Tennessee is improving but any team that gets beat by them this year don't deserve to be in a bowl game which includes KY and SC.
Clemson may have a win streak, but their opponents have not been impressive opposition. And actually that may be Alabama's downfall this year for the rankings. For the most part, the SEC West opponents have not had the best year when normally they are more competitive overall.
This idea of rewarding a team for going undefeated by putting them in the championship playoff is nonsense to me. Look at the teams and decide who has the better team. Look at the overall picture. Don't give participation trophies simply because they went undefeated.
Alabama is likely out of the top four for good this year. They played poorly and got beat, and had they played that poorly against most any top ten team the result could have been the same, IMO.
The fact that the CFP and other people who support this failed system believe that it will produce the best team in the country creates an awful lot of chaos. It's been said before and it cannot be mentioned enough, we need more teams involved and 16 would be ideal as it would not upset the big bowl games. Until we get there, expect more of the same feelings as we have at this moment.
At this point in time, Alabama fails to meet the three basic criteria that guides the effort to pick the top four teams. They did not run the table, their strength of schedule was weak, they cannot be a conference champion, and they cannot get a head-to-head competition with Georgia. The two latter problems is due to mini-divisions that do not play each team in the conference...so in this case...the SEC has indirectly hammered their conference darling. Alabama can still get in provided a good number of teams fall completely apart.
I kinda wish that every conference had it like what the Big 12 has went to a few years back. Everybody plays everybody. Then, the championship game is the two best teams in the conference. No north/south divisions like it used to be. Yes, the championship game will be a repeat. But, the best thing about this is there won't be a team that can squeak into finals simply because they had a year where they didn't play the other power school(s) in the conference. The Big 12 has tried a lot of different methods over the past 15 years or so. North/south divisions, no championship, etc until arriving at the above. Some conferences might have to be realigned to get the numbers to even out. Speaking of conferences, they might have even outlived their usefulness. It used to be they were geographically close because of travel difficulties. Now, with airfare what it is, good roads and fast speed limits, as well as very thorough extended TV coverage, it isn't near as big of a deal. Now, it could be done where you draw from a hat the schedule. The fairest would be in 2 year segments where they flip the at home or on the road. It seems to be human nature to want to divide and label everything.
Lots of merit to your post. All things being equal is, of course, the only surefire way to be fair to literally every individual and entity. For the vast majority of college football history such a simple philosophy was the norm, and then along came 14 team mega conferences broken down into basically mini-conferences, which by their very nature add a couple of schools that have a storied history to an already good conference, and a couple of schools that play the doormat just for the money that will flow to them through such an alliance.
Playing a championship game in a conference like the ones you describe plays no purpose but to give the loser a second chance...when the other eight teams have to live with their results...such a game is meaningless, since the conference champion is the one on top of the heap after they have played each other one time.
It's going to be hard to ditch this miserable playoff system that we have today for a simple 16 team playoff schedule, since money, greed, and power rules not only in the media, advertising, and the CFP but, by all too many schools and conference officials.