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2016 POLLS

casper1947casper1947 Member Posts: 1,147 ✭✭✭✭✭
edited September 2016 in Politics
I have been logging poll data since May 18th for polls from individual States. In a Trump vs Clinton matchup. Very recently they have been including other candidates. This inclusion has reduced the margin but not changed it. Many of the races are within a margin of error but if realclear had a +1 for either candidate I gave it to them. So far I only have 12 States (CA, Connecticut, FL. Georgia, Michigan, NJ, NC, OH, OR, Utah, Virginia, Wisconsin). The candidate will need 270.

So far it's;
Clinton 162
Trump 44

I know it is way early, but I have to start sometime. I plan on updating this as more data is available (not that anyone cares). I know it's "polls" and they can be wrong. But have they been, really?

One I can't explain is "President Obama Job Approval" +6~9, yet "Direction of Country" +39 Wrong Track.

SOURCE:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
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    Mr. PerfectMr. Perfect Member, Moderator Posts: 66,372 ******
    edited November -1
    Thanks for posting. I believe the job approval rating and direction of country stat can be explained by the fact folks blame congress rather than the president.
    Some will die in hot pursuit
    And fiery auto crashes
    Some will die in hot pursuit
    While sifting through my ashes
    Some will fall in love with life
    And drink it from a fountain
    That is pouring like an avalanche
    Coming down the mountain
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    casper1947casper1947 Member Posts: 1,147 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November -1
    A recent poll has moved FL from Clinton +3 to Trump +1 so......

    Trump 73 Clinton 133

    What I find interesting is when other candidates are included it affects Clinton as much or more than Trump.

    FL only Trump vs Clinton 45/44 . When Johnson and Stein were included Trump 41 Clinton 40. That is -4 for BOTH.

    Connecticut Trump vs Clinton 38/45, again when others were included Trump 36 Clinton 41. -2 for Trump, -4 for Clinton.
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    casper1947casper1947 Member Posts: 1,147 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November -1
    Finally got to add another State, Kansas. Clinton +7. WTH Kansas is suppose to be a RED State.
    There was a poll for Utah but it had such a significant shift (Trump +7 to a tie) that I will wait for another poll before making any changes.
    13 States
    Trump 73
    Clinton 139

    Polling data from RealClear and 270 to win
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    casper1947casper1947 Member Posts: 1,147 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November -1
    3 State polls so far today.
    PA, FL, OH. OH still Clinton , FL changes from trump to Clinton. and PA (new) Clinton.
    14 States
    Clinton 188
    Trump 44
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    casper1947casper1947 Member Posts: 1,147 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November -1
    As of June 26 I have tracked polls from now 18 States. The polls of which MOST are still within the margin of error are from May 18 thru June 26. When the poll includes other candidates that is the one I use.

    June 26:
    Clinton 227
    Trump 35
    270 WINS

    What is interesting is that when Johnson and Stein are included they effect both Trump and Clinton, not enough to change the lead and not the same degree in all cases.
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    casper1947casper1947 Member Posts: 1,147 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November -1
    Update and observations.

    In the last week Rasmussen has had 3 polls that have Trump ahead, it is the only one, the rest have Clinton ahead.

    The July 8 is a Clinton/Trump/Johnson and has Trump +2. 38+40+9=86% there are 14% undecided or none of the above. That is a significant number.

    Almost every general poll that do a Trump Clinton matchup AND a Trump Clinton Others have the Others effect Clinton more than Trump.

    But it is still about winning States.

    By my count, 22 States

    Clinton 255
    Trump 84
    Johnson 0
    Stein 0

    270 to win.
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    casper1947casper1947 Member Posts: 1,147 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November -1
    a couple of new polls show a little movement.

    FL from Clinton +4 or more to Trump +5, the first poll that Trump leads since June 7.

    IOWA from Clinton + to Trump +2, This is the first poll this year in Iowa that Trump leads.

    Both of these include Johnson and Stein.

    Clinton 226
    Trump 119

    23 States so far
    270 to win
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    casper1947casper1947 Member Posts: 1,147 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November -1
    3 new polls today. All from the same organization. What is consistent over the last few days is when other candidates are added Clinton is affected more, and negatively.

    I don't pick them, I just record them. These were all considered swing States, PA, FL, OH.

    FL no change Trump +5
    PA from Clinton +2 to Trump +6
    Oh from Clinton +1 to Trump +1

    My totally un-scientific summary is currently:
    23 States
    Clinton 188
    Trump 157

    270 to win
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    jerrywh818jerrywh818 Member Posts: 2,573 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November -1
    To some degree I believe the polls are corrupt just like everything else is in politics.
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    casper1947casper1947 Member Posts: 1,147 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November -1
    Starting to get interesting.
    as of July 26 AM
    Clinton 194
    Trump 171
    23 States
    Polls have a 3~4% margin of error.
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    casper1947casper1947 Member Posts: 1,147 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November -1
    Update Aug 5 AM

    This is an attempt to view polling by State in an objective manner.
    29 States for a total of 378 electoral votes. 160 to go.

    Trump 119
    Clinton 259

    Now the margin of error of 4% being typical there are 13 States (158 electoral votes) within 4%....Thus possible standing:

    Best for Trump
    Trump 234
    Clinton 144

    Worst
    Trump 76
    Clinton 302

    I am not interested in the merits or biases of a poll, only how correct they were in the long run.
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    jerrywh818jerrywh818 Member Posts: 2,573 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November -1
    This is like calling a football game in the first quarter.
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    eastbankeastbank Member Posts: 4,215
    edited November -1
    the polls should have 1000 rep,s and 1000 dems to be believed, but it has not been so. fudged numbers and asking things in a way to reflect what results you want. mr myopic.
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    casper1947casper1947 Member Posts: 1,147 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November -1
    This is hardly CALLING the came in the first quarter. I prefer following the game rather than waiting to watch until the 2 minute warning and then wondering how we got where we are, or being upset by the outcome.

    Parity in polling would appear to be the best method, on the surface, but polling equal R and D in someplace like CA, NY or TX to mention a few would give skewed results in that it would not reflect the reality of the voting history. Perhaps a State poll based on the party afflation percent would be best, but that is just a thought.

    31 States 8/29/2016
    Trump 137
    Clinton 245

    10 within a 4% margin of error.
    Best for Trump
    Trump 220
    Clinton 162

    Does anyone know where their State currently polls?
    Texas Trump +11
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    MobuckMobuck Member Posts: 13,810 ✭✭✭✭
    edited November -1
    "the fact folks blame congress rather than the president."

    This idea is not entirely wrong. The Prez did so many things wrong but Congress let him get away with it.
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    droptopdroptop Member Posts: 8,367 ✭✭
    edited November -1
    This is one of the more "useful" posts. Glad to see it's being updated.
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    kimikimi Member Posts: 44,723 ✭✭✭
    edited November -1
    The Goofy Beast continues to slide in the polls. That's good news folks.
    What's next?
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    spasmcreekspasmcreek Member Posts: 37,724 ✭✭✭
    edited November -1
    i have a hard time believing a mass of voters are going to pullout of being STUPID
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    casper1947casper1947 Member Posts: 1,147 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November -1
    It is starting to get interesting

    38 States

    Trump 206
    Clinton 244

    But 13 States where the polls are less than 4% margin.

    Trump has 1~4% lead for 84 electoral votes
    Clinton has 1~4% lead for 67 electoral votes

    If Trump were to hold his margin of error lead and take away Clinton's:
    Trump 273
    Clinton 177

    270 to win. 13 with no polling available at this time for 88 electoral votes.
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