AWB Failed??.......C&P from FBI

3gunner3gunner Member Posts: 489 ✭✭✭
Below is a copy and paste from the FBI's web site regarding the effectiveness (or lack thereof) of the 1994 AWB. I have heard about it but just found it in print.


Stephen W. Hargarten, Evelyn M. Kuhn, Carrie L. Nie, Mallory E. O'Brien, Richard L. Withers, Firearm Injury Center, Medical College of Wisconsin, Department of Emergency Medicine, 9200 W. Wisconsin Avenue, Milwaukee, WI 53226 Garen J. Wintemute, Violence Prevention Research Program, 2315 Stockton Boulevard, Sacramento, CA 95817

The Violent Crime and Law Enforcement Act of 1994 banned designated semi-automatic assault weapons and large-capacity magazines. To analyze the effectiveness of these provisions, we looked at changes in Milwaukee County in the frequency of use of banned firearms in homicides, the magazine capacity of firearms used in homicides, and the number of entrance wounds in homicide victims. This shortterm evaluation in a single county found no significant expected changes in the use of the firearms, magazines, or in the number of wounds. Further analysis and evaluation of the effects of the federal assault weapon ban are warranted.

The Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act of 1994 (Title XI, Subtitle A) went into effect on September 13, 1994. This Crime Control Act banned the manufacture, transfer, and possession of designated semiautomatic assault weapons, but does not apply to the possession or transfer of firearms lawfully possessed on the date of enactment. The Act also banned the manufacture of large capacity (greater than 10 rounds) ammunition magazines but did not ban the sale or possession of those already made. Subtitle A of the Crime Control Act defined assault weapons in the ban to be any of 19 listed firearms, or copies or duplicates of the firearms in any caliber. This policy intervention and its impact on crime and homicides have received limited study. Firearms with features such as high capacity magazines, folding rifle stocks, threaded barrel tips, and barrel
shrouds were perceived as highly lethal. However, such firearms were being used in a low proportion of gun crimes, less than 8 % by most estimates (Roth & Koper, 1997 and 1999). Consequently, the policy intent of the Crime Control Act of 1994 and its effects may be difficult to measure. Currently, there is no national system of information that can readily evaluate this policy. This analysis seeks to determine whether the Crime Control Act affected the nature of guns used in homicides, or confiscated at homicide crime scenes in a defined geographic area. Two potential effects are examined: the frequency of use of banned firearms, and the magazine capacity of firearms.


All firearm homicide records from the Firearm Injury Reporting System from 1991 through 1996 for Milwaukee County were reviewed. The Firearm Injury Reporting System (FIRS) of the Medical
College of Wisconsin (MCW) utilizes the public health model of host (victim), agent/vehicle (firearm), and environment for data collection and linkage. All fatal firearm events occurring in Milwaukee County were reviewed. In FIRS, the following information regarding the victim is collected from the Medical Examiner
(ME): name, address, type of death (homicide, suicide, unintentional, undetermined), age, race, sex, marital status, education, occupation, location of injury and death, weapon specification in suicides, unintentional and undetermined deaths, anatomical gunshot wound findings, cause of death, alcohol and drug usage, and the law enforcement agency investigating the death. The case is linked with the appropriate law enforcement agency by utilizing the name, date of birth, and date of death of the victim from the ME files. From the closed case files (cases not under active investigation, estimated 90% clearance rate), the following information, primarily on the environment, is collected: demographics on the perpetrator(s), probation and parole status of the perpetrator(s), and any information available on the weapon specifications including the crime lab case number. This information is complemented with the Supplemental Homicide Reports (SHR) of the Uniform Crime Reports. The SHR provides incident based information on homicides: type of weapon, relationship of the victim to the perpetrator, the situation (i.e., single victim/single offender, single victim/multiple offenders), the location, the circumstance (i.e., robbery, rape, fight, argument, gun cleaning), and drug and/or alcohol
involvement. An estimated 30% of homicides have guns submitted to the Crime Lab for investigation. The Crime Lab case number obtained from law enforcement files links the firearm with the event. The following information is abstracted: weapon make, caliber, model, type, serial number, barrel length, magazine capacity, safety features; bullet caliber, weight, and type; and casing/cartridge caliber, type, and manufacturer. We present two categories of both pistols and rifles: 1) the firearm linked with the fatality
called the "incident" gun, and 2), the firearm(s) collected at the scene of the homicide, called "scene" guns. FoxPro and SAS were utilized in the analysis. Chi-square tests were used to compare proportion so firearms which were banned, or had large magazines. Wilcoxon rank sum tests were used to compare number of wounds before and after the ban.

Assault weapon homicide analysis

A total of 656 homicides occurred during the study period (1991-1996), 414 before the ban and 242 afterwards. Of these, detailed information on the incident weapon was available for 122 pistols or rifles and an additional 220 scene weapons. There were 79 incident firearms with sufficient information for analysis prior to the effective date of the Crime Control Act (Sept. 13, 1994), and 43 afterward. Before the ban, 7 were firearms banned by the Act (8.7 %). After the ban, 4 firearms were banned weapons: 4
out of 43 (9.3 %, p=NS). There was no difference in the proportion of homicides involving banned firearms before and after the Act.

Magazine capacity
Prior to the Crime Control Act, 64 out of 180 (35.6 %) of all confiscated pistols detailed in our
database (both incident guns and scene guns) had magazine capacity greater than 10. After the Act, a slightly greater proportion of all confiscated (incident and scene) pistols were of high magazine capacity: 45 out of 116 (38.8 %). With rifles, the difference was more pronounced: 11 large magazines out of 30 (36.7 %) prior to the ban, and 9 out of 14 (64.3 %) after the ban. The differences in proportion, however, are not statistically significant due to small numbers. Incident firearms and scene firearms were also analyzed separately. Prior to the ban, 27 out of 66 (40.9 %) pistols used in the homicides had large magazines; after the ban, 15 out of 40 (37.5 %) pistols used in the homicides were of high magazine capacities. For scene pistols, 37 of 114 (32.5%) before the
ban, and 30 of 76 (39.5%) after the ban, had large magazines. These differences were not statistically significant. Four out of 11 (36.4%) incident rifles before the Crime Control Act had magazine capacities greater than ten; after the Act, 1 out of 3 (33.3 %) had large capacity magazine (p=NS). Before the Act, we found 7 out of 19 scene rifles (36.8 %) had magazine capacities greater than 10; after the Act, 8 out of 11 (72.7 %) had large capacity magazines (p=.06). The numbers of rifles are very small, however.

Multiple wounds
Prior to the assault weapon ban, our data indicate an average of 2.4 entrance wounds per victim, with a standard deviation of 3.1. After the ban, there was an average of 2.8 entrance wounds per victim with a standard deviation of 2.9 (p=NS).

One way to measure the effect of the Crime Control Act is to compare the proportion of homicide firearms that were banned by the Act and magazine capacities of incident guns before and after the ban. The expected result of this policy should be a smaller proportion of banned homicide firearms (incident and scene) and fewer firearms with high capacity magazines after the Act. However, we found no trend in either direction. We believed that a policy intent of the Act was to address the indirect effect of large capacity
magazines on wounding. We expected to find a decrease in wounds per victim after the Crime Control Act. A ban on assault weapons might be expected to result in a decline in entrance wounds per victim. We found no significant difference in wounding frequency before and after the Act. The named categories of rifles and pistols targeted by the 1994 Crime Control Act were not a major factor in Milwaukee County gun homicide before or after the federal ban. The proportion of homicides perpetrated with the targeted weapons did not change significantly after the law took effect. The magazine capacity of homicide weapons and the number of entrance wounds per victim also did not change significantly during this period. The geographic and temporal limitations of the data used in our investigation do not permit conclusive evaluation. One metropolitan area and a short follow up time period after the ban (a little more than 2 years post ban) were examined providing a very small number of cases to quantify the effects of the Act. It is reasonable to expect that there would not be a difference in assault weapon use or high capacity
magazines for several years. Weapons and magazines manufactured before the ban are still available; a longer follow-up period is required. This examination is preliminary. There are too few cases for conclusive conclusions to be drawn. Further analysis and evaluation of the effects of the federal assault weapon ban are warranted.

Roth, J.A., & Koper, C.S. (1997). Impact evaluation of the Public Safety and Recreational Firearms Use Protection Act of 1994: final report. Washington, D.C.: Urban Institute.
Roth J., & Koper, C. (1999). Research in Brief -Impacts of the 1994 assault weapons ban: 1994-96. Washington, D.C.: National Institute of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, U.S. Department of Justice.


  • pickenuppickenup Member, Moderator Posts: 22,361 ******
    edited November -1
    No surprise at all.

    I would like to add this to my favorites.
    Do you have the address?

    The gene pool needs chlorine.
  • Jake_S-83Jake_S-83 Member Posts: 2,333 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November -1
    If you haven't read it, check out "The Bias against Guns" the authors name is escaping me at the moment, but its full of more "non surprises" about gun stats and media, govt, etc
  • ArmaliteA4ArmaliteA4 Member Posts: 489 ✭✭✭
    edited November -1
    I would like to show this to Teddy Kennedy
    I watched him scream at the senate yesterday like a kid!!
    But would it matter....probably not,he and his kind are allowed to have bodyguards and the like. The unwashed masses are to fend for themselves.
    I would like to run into him sometime and debate him on gun rights.[:(!]
  • gap1916gap1916 Member Posts: 4,977
    edited November -1
    And the reason that these stats are not published for all to see in the media is?????? [8D]

  • etchglowetchglow Member Posts: 8 ✭✭
    edited November -1
    ya can i get the url for this? want to use in me research paper for govt. class [:)]
  • LangenatorLangenator Member Posts: 1 ✭✭
    edited November -1
    The author of "The Bias Against Guns" is John Lott. He also wrote "More Guns, Less Crime"

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