Farming Insider Warns The Coming Food Shortages are here?
If corn is the item to be in short supply,you can bet the average person's meat consumption is going way down! Food inflation has already made The Democrats losers in November & With the coming money reset and new green policies being put in place , then the standard of living is going way down here in The USA soon.
The rich will have no problems, except if the supply Chain is broken due to unrest and food riots.
serf
“Things for 2022 are interesting (and scary). Input costs for things like fertilizer, liquid nitrogen and seeds are like triple and quadruple the old prices. It will not be profitable to plant this year. Let me repeat, the economics will NOT work. Our plan, is to drop about 700 acres of corn off and convert to soybeans (they use less fertilizer, and we also have chicken manure from that operation). Guess what? We are not the only ones with those plans. Already there is a shortage of soybean seeds, so we will see how that will work out. The way I see it, there will be a major grain shortage later in the year, especially with corn. I mean, we are small with that. What about these people in the midwest who have like 10,000 acres of corn? This will not be good.”
Comments
2/3rds of the us is in drought
combine drought with raw material price increases [fertilizer fuel seed corn etc],add in covid supply chain bottlenecks and a helping of farmers aging out and you have a disaster in the making .
The biggest disaster is having a DEMOCRAT POTUS and Congress. They alone are responsible for all the economic ruination we are facing.
From what I've seen, fertilizer and seed prices are NOT 3-4X of 'old' prices. We're looking at 150-200%. Keep in mind that a lot of stored corn from previous years' production was sold in 2021 and most smart operators turned that money back into pre-paying inputs for 2022 crops. These operators will not be affected by fertilizer costs and possibly not fuel or seed prices, either. Soybeans require similar amounts of phosphate and potassium vs corn. The difference is the amount of nitrogen. Good old Slow Joe put a kink in the bloomers of producers by shutting down the Dakota pipeline.
Today's ag headlines reported a significant lowering of projected soybean yields in South America.
That sounds a lot more reasonable and accurate as well as closer to what I have seen locally. Of course the article Serf used was from Zerohedge, which is an extreme right wing National Enquirer type of website. The article was written by an author who makes a living profiting off of gullible doomsday people. You'll notice he advertises his new book, "7 year apocalypse", at the end of his article. If he doesn't tell enough distorted half-truths to scare folks, they won't buy his book. I confess, I occasionally check out that website for grins and giggles about once a month or so. Bob
Well have fun with your food inflation and The Phony Petrol Dollar reserve currency that could fail here Bob. All the while the trade deficit last year was over a trillion dollars which is sure to increase with inflation .
No good paying jobs or production here is the fault of Free trade deals that our illustrious leaders with Congress! No wonder The money changers wants and needs a hot war somewhere soon in the world.
100% to 150% increase is still a huge increase for food production especially with meat prices. And using last year crops only slows it down Temporarily.If you think next year prices go down then you are mistaken.
serf
Customs loophole costs the U.S. three-quarters of a million jobs and adds $128 billion to the real trade deficit
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-record-1-trillion-trade-deficit-doesnt-even-count-hundreds-of-millions-of-small-packages-mailed-directly-from-china-11643654834
It looks like the United States just set a record in 2021—and not a good one. When complete December data comes out on Feb. 8, it will mark the first time the nation ever racked up an annual goods trade deficit exceeding $1 trillion. That’s a staggering sum, and it represents a massive, ongoing shift in production away from U.S. factories toward China and other state-subsidized manufacturers.
One of Trumps accomplishments while in office was to end the USPS subsidizing the postage on packages sent from China. Up until then the Chinese were getting up to a 70% discount on postage. It was actually a lot cheaper to ship a package from China than it was to ship one from state to state here in the U.S. Unfortunately, he then shut down our economy because of Covid and literally drove peoples buying habits to China. If that is someone's only source, increased shipping costs become irrelevant. A flat tariff rate on all China goods, no matter the value, is probably the only solution. Unfortunately it is the consumer that pays the increased cost and not China. Unless we figure out a way to get people here to return to the workforce, China will be our only source for products no matter what they cost. The artificially low unemployment numbers don't take into consideration that workforce participation is decreasing every month. Hmmmm... It sounds like the lack of American work ethic is driving us towards the A.I. automated workforce that worries you so much. Bob
hurt not the oil and the wine
And fiery auto crashes
Some will die in hot pursuit
While sifting through my ashes
Some will fall in love with life
And drink it from a fountain
That is pouring like an avalanche
Coming down the mountain
It is getting worse(I didn't expect this to continue so long) and overall input costs are constantly escalating. Some fertilizer and chemical dealers won't 'pre-sell' or even guarantee a price.
We just quoted a new farmer a price for corn production that exceeds his projected return by close to 25%. That didn't include his interest costs and time--just inputs and machinery costs. When I talked to him last night, he was pretty dejected but understood it was not in his best interest to continue with the 'money pit syndrome'.
We already have the majority of our input costs either paid or have prices locked in @ 2021 levels. This bit of forward thinking will add around $100-150 per acre to our profit margin. For us, the bigger issue is the retailers who may have 'oversold' inventory that they didn't/don't have.